For Pete's sake part two

One model shows 60 % chance at 5 and 6:00.  Another model says 10 % at 5:00 and later.

Here what I'm thinking.  If it's raining at 5:00 no happy hour.

If it is not raining, come on down.

I'll try to check closer to 4 or 5 and update.

Sorry for the wishy washy report.